KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Deciding whether to adopt or pass on a trend can be the difference between building a successful future and digging a hole for your business.
- Investigating trends, analyzing their value, and assessing their relevance for your industry are all critical processes that speak to your core business values.
- Today, technology trends like ChatGPT and facial authentication are already standing out from their competitive landscapes.
Can you truly tell the difference between fleeting trends and enduring innovations? It’s a vital skill for businesses who want to future-proof their operations. While it may be tempting to leap onto bandwagons in a haze of FOMO, it’s hard to predict what will stand the test of time. Some trends, like NFTs, create infectious buzz but ultimately fail to deliver lasting benefits. Others, like the internet, are enduring, with unimpeachable value. Here, we’ll discuss the principles at play when evaluating trends and determining buy-in, from your bitcoins to your BlackBerries.
Principle 1: Understand and Investigate the Trend
We all like to think that if we owned businesses in the late 1970s we’d be the first to adopt computers or the first to see the value of the internet in the 90s. But hindsight is 20/20, and the truth is, we may not have the ability to parse the next big thing from the next big misfire.
When a new trend looks like it might be about to redefine how we do business, take a step back to articulate the following:
- A Clear Definition: You can’t evaluate what you don’t understand. Begin by clearly defining the trend, including its key terms, concepts, and overall scope.
- Origin and Drivers: Investigate the origins of the trend and the factors driving its growth. Is it driven by technological advancements, consumer demand, or regulatory changes? These details can provide insights into the trend’s potential longevity and impact.
- Identify Key Players: Who are the major proponents, developers, and theorists who endorse the trend? These elements speak directly to a trend’s credibility and potential for growth.
Principle 2: Analyze Conflicts and Challenges
Even transformative inventions like EVs had early problems that prompted concern about their staying power. After all, how would a Tesla catch on without a network of charging stations in place? How could a prospective buyer in 2008 know that these problems would eventually be completely solved?
The sheer necessity of clean, efficient transportation prompted widespread changes in global infrastructure to accommodate the market, but the dynamics in a free market weren’t easy to predict. You need to have your finger on the pulse of both necessity and opportunity to help you determine if a trend will muster enough effort from society to sustain it.
- Identify Conflicts: Look for any unresolved issues, roadblocks, contradictions, or weaknesses of the trend. NFTs, for example, had plenty of shortcomings that were visible early on. No matter how great a trend might seem on paper, make sure you digest and analyze the critiques of informed opponents.
- Evaluate Bias: Be aware of potential biases in the information you gather. Analyze whether the sources of information have any vested interests that might skew their perspective on the trend.
- Implementation Barriers: Identify practical challenges in implementing the trend within your organization. This includes technological barriers, investment costs, and the need for new skills or infrastructure. Sometimes it may be a heavy lift, but if it’s a real game changer, it may be worth it.
- Cultural Resistance: Consider potential resistance within your organization or industry. Trends that require significant changes in behavior or culture may face pushback, which can hinder successful adoption.
Principle 3: Consolidate Your Position
As you gather information about a trend you’re evaluating, you’ll need to organize and interrogate what you know to form concrete insights. For instance, using biometric technology to unlock phones, confirm IDs at airport security, and link ticketing information is going mainstream—but not every method is a winner.
Fingerprinting and retina scans have extremely limited applications, and the security and convenience of facial authentication have made it a much more enduring and profitable choice for industries like sports and entertainment, healthcare, and higher education.
To avoid making the wrong choice, take the time to:
- Synthesize Information: This involves weighing the evidence, considering different perspectives, and identifying the trend’s potential impact on your business in particular. In many cases, digital analytical tools play a huge role in generating actionable data.
- Generate Long-Term Projections: Evaluate what the trend might look like in the future, and leverage modeling software as appropriate to support decision-making.
Principle 4: Assess Relevance to Your Business
A flashy new trend may get a lot of press, but at the end of the day, it has to deliver significant value for your team and a healthy return on the investment. Before you adopt, carefully consider the following:
- Alignment with Business Goals: Evaluate how the trend aligns with your company’s mission and strategic goals. Does it support your long-term objectives, or is it a distraction from your core business?
- Industry Impact: Consider how the trend is affecting your industry. Are competitors adopting it? Is it reshaping industry standards and consumer expectations, or is it a flash in the pan and businesses will be backing out in a year?
- Potential Benefits: If you adopt, will it increase your efficiency, pad your margins, delight customers, and deliver a measurable competitive advantage?
- Challenges and Risks: Every investment entails risk, including implementation costs, technological barriers, cultural resistance, or regulatory hurdles. A deep understanding of these factors can help you weigh the pros and cons more effectively.
Get on Board with The Enduring Trends of Tomorrow
It’s tempting to speculate about what current trends will be the staples of tomorrow, and there are already some strong contenders revolutionizing how we do business. Machine learning and AI are some of the most broadly applicable opportunities, and industry-specific opportunities like ChatGPT and facial authentication technology are promising more than just increased productivity and high returns on the investment. These innovations are moving to the forefront of their own competitive landscapes, becoming fixtures of future infrastructure and industry standards and solidifying their place in our cultural vernacular.
At the end of the day, separating the wheat from the chaff when it comes to enduring tech trends takes a bit more than just… “googling.” Executives will need to engage with developers offering these innovations directly, connect with industry leaders, and follow relevant use cases closely to understand the potential vs. practical returns of evolving opportunities. Businesses that can tell lasting trends from fleeting fads will make strategic investments that align with their long-term goals and drive sustainable growth, and that’s what will determine who’s here to stay.
